For political geeks only

Posted by Tania Kindersley.

Re: previous post. I see that the poll I was quoting is a couple of months old, and since the situation is febrile, I thought I ought to go and check how things stand now.

There is a much more detailed and recent New York Times Poll here, which comes up with slightly different results. However, my objection to the Conventional Wisdom stands. Overall, despite reservations and complaints, 60% of voters are optimistic about President Obama's next two years. The Democratic Party beats the Republican Party 46% to 41%. It is only among likely voters that the numbers are reversed, which makes it seem that the enthusiasm gap of which I have been sceptical may exist after all.

There will be a change in politics, but it's not really a great crashing tidal wave, is it? It's not the tear up the book all bets are off thing of which the pundits speak, with such conviction. Oddly enough, it reminds me of what recently happened here in Blighty. People were angry with Labour but not yet in love with the Conservatives. Many seats did change hands, but there were caveats and qualifications all over the shop.

Oh, and buried in the 88 questions in this most recent poll was one about the Tea Party. 24% are in favour. I call that many things, but I do not call it a revolution.

I really, really am stopping now.

A couple of pretty pictures to make it up to you:

PS. Final bit of really excessive geekery. One thing I do notice and do not quite understand is that when people are asked to rate the two parties, the approval hovers around the fortyish mark. It is when they are asked to rate their performance in Congress that the numbers sink like a stone, to the high teens or low twenties. I think this says something subtle and interesting about the voters, but I am not entirely sure what it is.

Stopping, stopping.